Still, the ruble remains above levels prior to Russias 29.11.2022. China has warned Russia against threats to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine. Big Picture US - Recession looming in 2023 We expect Fed to push the US economy into a modest recession starting from Q2 2023. Starting in 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to address economic problems by moving towards a market-oriented socialist economy. Todays Russia suffers from many vulnerabilitiesoil and gas prices well below peak that have caused a drop in living standards, economic sanctions that have furthered that decline, an aging and soon-to-be-declining population, and increasing authoritarianism under Vladimir Putins now-continued rule.Such vulnerabilities are coupled with deep-seated (if Quite possibly they are hearing other voices too. Syrian Democratic Forces trainees, representing an equal number of Arab and Kurdish volunteers, stand in formation at their graduation ceremony in northern Syria, August 9, 2017. Noam Chomsky analyzes Russias war on Ukraine and the prospects for peace, six months into the humanitarian disaster. [83][84] Russia also has the second-largest volume of illicit money outflows, having lost over $880 billion between 2002 and 2011 in this way. The U.S. dismissed them in favor of integrating Ukraine into the NATO (that is, U.S.) military command, also refusing to take any Russian security concerns into consideration, as conceded. [29] It has been widely described as an energy superpower;[30] as it has the world's largest natural gas reserves,[31] the second-largest coal reserves,[32] the eighth-largest oil reserves,[33] and the largest oil shale reserves in Europe. The government has launched a program promoting construction of IT-oriented technology parks (Technoparks)special zones that have an established infrastructure and enjoy a favorable tax and customs regime, in seven different places around the country: Moscow, Novosibirsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Kaluga, Tumen, Republic of Tatarstan and St. Peterburg Regions. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. Hearst Television participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. Beginning in 1928, the course of the Soviet Union's economy was guided by a series of five-year plans. Read more . [49] Russia is a friendly European nation, he declared. In the 1990s Russia was "the largest borrower" from the International Monetary Fund, with loans totaling $20 billion. [98] By 2016, the Russian economy rebounded with 0.3% GDP growth and officially exited recession. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Read more . The 0.8% reduction recorded by the industry for the first three quarters of 2010 looked remarkably healthy in comparison with the 18.4% slump recorded the previous year, and construction firms became much more optimistic about the future than in previous months. A stronger position is that of the establishment voices cited: calls for diplomatic options to be explored before the horrors become even worse, not only for Ukraine but far beyond. Noam Chomsky: Tragedy foretold. C.J. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia underwent a radical transformation, moving from a centrally planned economy to a globally integrated market economy. NOTE: For all the tables in this brief, high and low rankings for costs and risks are inverted in desirability from the rest of the table; i.e., low costs are good in the same way that a high likelihood of success is. The biggest sector in terms of revenue is system and network integration, which accounts for 28.3% of the total market revenues. Zinchenko, L. A., et al. Together, the articles make up an encyclopedia of European statistics for everyone, completed by a statistical glossary clarifying all terms used and by numerous links to further information and the latest data and Get breaking NBA Basketball News, our in-depth expert analysis, latest rumors and follow your favorite sports, leagues and teams with our live updates. Third is technological underdevelopment, eased somewhat by borrowing from the West in the 1920s. Rejected them at the end with contempt also shooting himself and Russia in the foot by driving Europe deep into Washingtons pocket, its fondest dream. His latest books are, Noam Chomsky On Capitalism, Empire, and Social Change, Climate Crisis and the Global Green New Deal, The Political Economy of Saving the Planet. It remains an open question whether European leaders will be willing to supervise Europes economic decline and increased subordination to the U.S., and whether their populations will tolerate these outcomes of adhering to U.S. demands. Due to lack of inquiry, part of the general disparagement of diplomacy in mainstream circles, we dont know to what extent that was a factor in their collapse. Statistics Explained is an official Eurostat website presenting statistical topics in an easily understandable way. Thus, a low cost is shaded in light orange while a low likelihood of success is shaded in dark orange. [citation needed], Between 1985 and 2018 almost 28,500 mergers or acquisitions have been announced in Russia. Yield Forecast Yield Outlook. [164], Russia's telecommunications industry is growing in size and maturity. Indonesia is a semi-annual journal devoted to the timely study of Indonesias culture, history, government, economy, and society. But the size of investment required to reconstitute a true blue-water naval capability makes it unlikely that Russia could be compelled or enticed to do so. Thus, their effectiveness will depend on the willingness of other countries to join in such a process. Muscovites protesting the war in Ukraine and Russias support of separatism in the Crimea on the Circular Boulevards in Moscow on March 15, 2014. The financial costs of a nuclear arms race would probably be as high for the United States as they would be for Russia, perhaps higher. The program will feature the breadth, power and journalism of rotating Fox News anchors, reporters and producers. It has enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. [94] Russia is rated one of the most unequal of the world's major economies. 12 Pekka Sutela, The Political Economy of Putins Russia (London and New York: Routledge, 2012). Russia gdp for 2021 was $1,775.80B, a 19.32% increase from 2020. Isnt this indeed another reason why the long-range ATACMS weapons that Ukraine says it needs should not be delivered to them? Indeed, how do you de-escalate a conflict when the escalation level is so high, and the warring sides seem to be unable to reach a joint decision about the issues of conflict between them? More than 200 U.S. soldiers and approximately 650 German airmen participated in the realistic training within a combined construct, exercising the rigors associated with force projection and educating operators on their air missile defense systems. But the extent to which these steps would damage Russian domestic stability is uncertain. James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Raphael S. Cohen, et al. [80] In dollar-denominated terms this amounted to a more than sevenfold increase in disposable incomes since 2000. [70] The volume of consumer credit between 2000 and 2006 increased 45 times, fuelling a boom in private consumption. US US. [71][72] The number of people living below poverty line declined from 30% in 2000 to 14% in 2008. Within services the most important segments are: wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods (17% of total GDP); public administration, health and education (12%); real estate (9%) and transport storage and communications (7%). [1], Aircraft manufacturing is an important industry sector in Russia, employing around 355,300 people. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Should I use all my inheritance for a down payment? [82] However, these gains have been distributed unevenly, as the 110 wealthiest individuals were found in a report by Credit Suisse to own 35% of all financial assets held by Russian households. [85] Since 2008 Forbes has repeatedly named Moscow the "billionaire capital of the world". But large-scale deployments on Russias borders would increase the risk of conflict with Russia, particularly if perceived as challenging Russias position in eastern Ukraine, Belarus, or the Caucasus. Global Investment Outlook 2023: A Year for Yield Nov 22, 2022. The share of premiums in household spending increased to 1.39%. [70] In the same period, unemployment and poverty more than halved and Russians' self-assessed life satisfaction also rose significantly. According to the most balanced forecasts, the GDP decline in 2022 will be only 3.33.4 percent, inflation will level off at about 12 percent, investment will fall by about 1 percent, and the populations real income will decline by 22.5 percent. Life in Ukraine as Russia Weaponizes Winter Moscows missiles have been taking out the power grid, leaving millions without power or heat. Currently, his main research interests are in U.S. politics and the political economy of the United States, European economic integration, globalization, climate change and environmental economics, and the deconstruction of neoliberalisms politico-economic project. Family looks to thank mystery woman who made daughter's day with sweet present In either case, it indicates that there are limits to the friendship between China and Russia, doesnt it? This is possible because many Russians pay no rent or house payments, owning their own home after privatization of state-owned Soviet housing. Agriculture accounts for the remaining 2%. Russia is a friendly European nation, he declared. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. The National Prosperity Fund is to be invested in more risky instruments, including the shares of foreign companies. [157], More than one-third of the sown area is devoted to fodder crops, and the remaining farmland is devoted to industrial crops, vegetables, and fruits. Reopening of the economy. Encouraging the emigration from Russia of skilled labor and well-educated youth has few costs or risks and could help the United States and other receiving countries and hurt Russia, but any effectsboth positive for receiving countries and negative for Russiawould be difficult to notice except over a very long period. Thats particularly true for the German industrial complex that is the base of the European economy. Increasing U.S. and allied naval force posture and presence in Russias operating areas could force Russia to increase its naval investments, diverting investments from potentially more dangerous areas. Todays Russia suffers from many vulnerabilitiesoil and gas prices well below peak that have caused a drop in living standards, economic sanctions that have furthered that decline, an aging and soon-to-be-declining population, and increasing authoritarianism under Vladimir Putins now-continued rule.Such vulnerabilities are coupled with deep-seated (if The country experienced hyperinflation and an exceptionally huge production decline for a country not ravaged by a major war. Imposing deeper trade and financial sanctions would also likely degrade the Russian economy, especially if such sanctions are comprehensive and multilateral. Todays Russia suffers from many vulnerabilitiesoil and gas prices well below peak that have caused a drop in living standards, economic sanctions that have furthered that decline, an aging and soon-to-be-declining population, and increasing authoritarianism under Vladimir Putins now-continued rule.Such vulnerabilities are coupled with deep-seated (if I want to buy a house. Reposturing bombers within easy striking range of key Russian strategic targets has a high likelihood of success and would certainly get Moscows attention and raise Russian anxieties; the costs and risks of this option are low as long as the bombers are based out of range of most of Russias theater ballistic and ground-based cruise missiles. Russia is a friendly European nation, he declared. USD: The majority of the top 10 deals are within the Russian Oil and Gas sector, followed by Metals and Mining. War and Sanctions Threaten to Thrust Russias Economy Back in Time. In 2015, Russia main exports are oil and natural gas (62.8% of total exports), ores and metals (5.9%), chemical products (5.8%), machinery and transport equipment (5.4%) and food (4.7%). Gorbachev's policies of Perestroika failed to rejuvenate the Soviet economy; instead, a process of political and economic disintegration culminated in the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Flip Transnistria and expel the Russian troops from the region would be a blow to Russian prestige, but it would also save Moscow money and quite possibly impose additional costs on the United States and its allies. Austria lifted a travel ban with 15 countries, with the notable exceptions of US, Brazil, India, and Russia. Russia has a large and sophisticated arms industry, capable of designing and manufacturing high-tech military equipment, including a fifth-generation fighter jet, nuclear powered submarines, firearms, and short range/long range ballistic missiles. The country experienced hyperinflation and an exceptionally huge production decline for a country not ravaged by a major war. There was only one way to find out: Try. Russia is not seeking military parity with the United States and, thus, might simply choose not to respond to some U.S. military actions (e.g., shifts in naval presence); other U.S. military actions (e.g., posturing forces closer to Russia) could ultimately prove more costly to the United States than to Russia. There is little evidence, to my knowledge, of China distancing itself from Russia. Difficulties in collecting government revenues amid the collapsing economy and dependence on short-term borrowing to finance budget deficits led to the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Dobbins, James, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan, Howard J. Shatz, and Brent Williams, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/reports, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/blogPosts, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/multimedia, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/caseStudies. As a consequence, in 2009 the IT market in Russia declined by more than 20% in ruble terms and by one-third in euro terms. 29.11.2022. Government policy is responding to both shocks. They happen to be right, but for reasons of which they are evidently unaware. [128] In 2019, It was the world's fourth-largest nuclear energy producer. The economy of Russia has gradually transformed from a planned economy into a mixed market-oriented economy. Hearst Television participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. On top of that, the EU and G7 implemented a $60/barrel price ceiling to allow the use of tankers and insurance services on deliveries to Asia. Dec. 5, 2022. Putin rejected French president Macrons efforts, to almost the last minute, to offer a viable alternative to aggression. [190] In 2020, tourism accounted for about 4% of country's GDP. [181] Russian insurance market in 2013 demonstrated quite significant rate of growth in operations. Send any friend a story. [150] Owing to its large coastline along three oceans, Russia maintains one of the world's largest fishing fleets, ranking sixth in the world in tonnage of fish caught; capturing 4,773,413 tons of fish in 2018. As Noam Chomsky points out in the exclusive interview for Truthout that follows, the escalation of the conflict has pushed diplomatic options even further into the background. The strong U.S. efforts to block Nord Stream long preceded the Ukraine crisis and the current fevered constructions about Putins long-term imperial designs. If the U.S. and Europe continue to pay Putin, that means more people will die in Ukraine, says Vladimir Slivyak. It remains an open question whether European leaders will be willing to supervise Europes economic decline and increased subordination to the U.S., and whether their populations will tolerate these outcomes of adhering to U.S. demands. Talk of nuclear weapons has been mostly in the West. "[53] With deep corruption afflicting the process, the result was disastrous, with real GDP falling by more than 40% by 1999, hyperinflation which wiped out personal savings, crime and destitution spreading rapidly. The first is a reserve fund equal to 10% of GDP (10% of GDP equals to about $200billion now), and was to be invested in a similar way as the Stabilization Fund. We will bring an end to it.. FOX FILES combines in-depth news reporting from a variety of Fox News on-air talent. [69], Russian banks were hit by the global credit crunch in 2008, though no long term damage was done thanks to proactive and timely response by the government and central bank, which shielded the banking system from effects of the global financial crisis. Level of claims paid on the market total without CHI is 46.5%, an insufficient increase compared to 2012. Between 2000 and 2002, significant pro-growth economic reforms included a comprehensive tax reform, which introduced a flat income tax of 13%; and a broad effort at deregulation which benefited small and medium-sized enterprises. [91] Political turmoil in neighboring Ukraine added to the uncertainty and suppressed investment. The option was ignored. Under the newly announced Nuclear Posture Review, nuclear weapons provide the maneuver space necessary for the United States to project conventional military power strategically. Nuclear deterrence is therefore a cover for conventional military operations around the globe, deterring others from interfering with U.S. conventional military operations. [190] Russia is ranked 39th in the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019. Whether these delicate matters can be kept under control, no one can be sure. Yeltsin's program of radical, market-oriented reform came to be known as a "shock therapy". Doing so could increase discontent with the regime, but there are serious risks that the Kremlin could increase repression or lash out and pursue a diversionary conflict abroad that might run counter to Western interests. [109], Russia was expected to have a Government Budget deficit of $21 billion in 2016. On the face of it, the November flash HICP figures brought a welcome decline in headline inflation from 10.6% to 10.0%. The Russian ruble weakened to 63 per USD in December, the lowest in nearly two months, as the start of the EU oil embargo is set to hamper Russian exports and demand for the ruble. Exports in Russia is reported by the Central Bank of Russia. [125] The country is the world's fourth-largest electricity producer,[126] and the ninth-largest renewable energy producer in 2019. According to the most balanced forecasts, the GDP decline in 2022 will be only 3.33.4 percent, inflation will level off at about 12 percent, investment will fall by about 1 percent, and the populations real income will decline by 22.5 percent. And like almost all the world, it wants a quick settlement of the conflict. Most of the options discussed, including those listed here, are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counterescalation. The volume of decisions facing planners in Moscow became overwhelming. Get the news you want, delivered to your inbox every day. There is unresolved debate about whether Ukraine accepted these agreements. All the more reason to try to bring the horrors to an end as soon as possible. In a landmark verdict, a jury convicted Stewart Rhodes, leader of the Oath Keepers, a right-wing militia, of sedition for his role in the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol. Economy of Russia. Palestinian youth and resistance fighters in Nablus continue to resist colonial encroachment and pay the price for it. The U.S. civilian workforce includes 7.6 million unauthorized immigrants, representing a decline since 2007. Although relative indicators of the Russian insurance market returned to pre-crisis levels, the progress is achieved mainly by the increase of life insurance and accident insurance, the input of these two market segments in premium growth in 2013 largely exceeds their share on the market. Prior to Putins invasion there were options based generally on the Minsk agreements that might well have averted the crime. China surely opposes the use of nuclear weapons, as does anyone with a shred of sanity remaining. Research. GDP grew on average 7% per year. Such cost-imposing options could place new burdens on Russia, ideally heavier burdens than would be imposed on the United States for pursuing those options. Progressives rebuked the new NDAA, which authorizes an $80 billion military spending increase over the 2022 bill. [162][163], As of 2013, Russians spent 60% of their pre-tax income on shopping, the highest percentage in Europe. Russia gdp for 2020 was $1,488.32B, a 12.1% decline from 2019. Others include: agricultural raw materials (2.2%) and textiles (0.2%).[197]. C.J. Government policy is responding to both shocks. Sanders says that the resolution has the votes to pass the Senate. Dec. 5, 2022. Ukraine-Russia negotiations took place under Turkish auspices as recently as March-April. Further sanctions, the removal of Russia from non-UN international forums, and boycotting such events as the World Cup could be implemented by Western states and would damage Russian prestige. I sold my late mother's home for $250,000. Thus, if "banking" lines of business are excluded, Russian insurance market is in stagnation stage for the last four years, as premiums to GDP ratio net of life and accident insurance remains at the same level of 1.1% since 2010.[182]. The roots of this demographic decline rest in the 1990s and the chaos wrought by Russias post-Soviet transition from a centrally planned economy to a capitalist, market-based one. Is there still an opportunity for the kind of diplomatic efforts that mainstream establishment voices are calling for? It is, then, true that the new doctrine is not very new, though Americans are unaware of the facts not because of censorship. While none of these measures has a high probability of success, any or all of them would prey on the Russian regimes deepest anxieties and might be employed as a deterrent threat to diminish Russias active disinformation and subversion campaigns abroad. Research. Algeria has been hit by two shocks in 2020the spread of COVID-19 and the sharp decline in oil prices. Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. US US. The most dramatic hit to the European economy is the loss of cheap Russian gas, now partially replaced by far more expensive American supplies (also greatly increasing pollution in transit and distribution). Get breaking NBA Basketball News, our in-depth expert analysis, latest rumors and follow your favorite sports, leagues and teams with our live updates. [89] In 2012 oil, gas and petroleum products accounted for over 70% of total exports. [172] As of 2016[update], Russia has 1,452.2 thousandkm of roads,[173] and its road density is among the world's lowest. Many of his publications have been translated into a multitude of different languages, including Arabic, Chinese, Croatian, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish and Turkish. There is one country that certainly had the capability and motive to destroy the pipelines. Ukrainian officials claim they have a strategy in place to take back Crimea because it was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. [47], The Russian economy is volatile. Together, the articles make up an encyclopedia of European statistics for everyone, completed by a statistical glossary clarifying all terms used and by numerous links to further information and the latest data and [5], Russia's vast geography is an important determinant of its economic activity, with the country holding a large share of the world's natural resources. So some of their recent statements indicate. Russia is the largest diamond-producing nation in the world, estimated to produce over 33 million carats in 2013, or 25% of global output valued at over $3.4 billion, with state-owned ALROSA accounting for approximately 95% of all Russian production. Polychroniou; Haymarket Books, 2021). The United States might goad Russia into a costly arms race by breaking out of the nuclear arms control regime, but the benefits are unlikely to outweigh U.S. costs. Deploying additional tactical nuclear weapons to locations in Europe and Asia could heighten Russias anxiety enough to significantly increase investments in its air defenses. Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russias greatest point of external vulnerability. In terms of value, 2007 has been the most active year with 158 bil. Russia is the 16th largest export economy in the world (2016)[198] and is a leading exporter of oil and natural gas. [159], The Space industry of Russia consists of over 100 companies and employs 250,000 people.[160]. Increased engagement is unlikely to extend Russia much economically and likely to be disproportionately costly for the United States. Only the estimated decline in retail trade is close to the spring forecasts, 6%. [27] It has enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. All of this is within the framework of the overarching Clinton doctrine that the U.S. must be ready to resort to force multilaterally if we can, unilaterally if we must, to ensure uninhibited access to key markets, energy supplies and strategic resources.. We cannot be sure. The IMF was criticised for lending so much, as Russia introduced little of the reforms promised for the money and a large part of these funds could have been "diverted from their intended purpose and included in the flows of capital that left the country illegally".[67][68]. While it might force Russia to invest in capabilities that can operate in a blue-water environment in two oceans and would reduce risks to U.S. strategic posture, the option is unlikely to entice Russia into changing its strategy and, thus, extending itself. Russia bounced back quickly from the August 1998 financial crash, partly because of a devaluation of the ruble, which made domestic producers more competitive nationally and internationally. The number of policies in 2013 increased on 0.1% compared to 2012, to 139.6 mln policies. The complex demands of the modern economy and inflexible administration overwhelmed and constrained the central planners. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. Expanding U.S. energy production would stress Russias economy, potentially constraining its government budget and, by extension, its defense spending. From 2007 to 2017, individual states experienced different trends. [184] Since the year 2000 the IT market has started growth rates of 3040% a year, growing by 54% in 2006 alone. Consumer prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, skyrocketed 6.6% from a year ago the fastest such pace in four decades. As for likelihood of success, some options are good cost-imposing strategies, but somesuch as investing more in HARMs or other electronic warfare technologiesare clearly better than others, and some approaches should be avoided, such as those that focus on space-based weapons or ballistic missile defense systems. Russian software exports have risen from just $120million in 2000 to $3.3billion in 2010. 12 Pekka Sutela, The Political Economy of Putins Russia (London and New York: Routledge, 2012). In Russia, services are the biggest sector of the economy and account for 58% of GDP. Exports in Russia decreased to US$39038 million in January 2013 from US$48568 million in December 2012. Read more . It was enthusiastically welcomed by the U.S., which had been trying for years to prevent this project. His latest books are The Secrets of Words (with Andrea Moro; MIT Press, 2022); The Withdrawal: Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Fragility of U.S. Power (with Vijay Prashad; The New Press, 2022); and The Precipice: Neoliberalism, the Pandemic and the Urgent Need for Social Change (with C.J. Reopening of the economy. The work builds on the concept of long-term strategic competition developed during the Cold War, some of which originated at RAND. It is not. Furthermore, this option might not even be feasible, given the radicalization, fragmentation, and decline of the Syrian opposition. Read more . [28] As of 2022[update], it is the fourth-largest economy in Europe, the world's ninth-largest economy by nominal GDP, and the sixth-largest by PPP. They go back to the days when Bush II was looking into Putins eyes and perceiving that his soul was good. Official GDP collapsed by almost half from 1990 to 1994, and slow decline continued throughout the decade. Rosefielde, Steven, and Natalia Vennikova. 29.11.2022. [171] The total length of common-used railway tracks is the world's third-longest, and exceeds 87,157km (54,157mi). Russia is experiencing a regrowth of microelectronics, with the revival of JCS Mikron. Meanwhile, a majority of Americans consider arms sales to be a hazard to U.S. security.. By adopting policies that expand world supply and depress global prices, the United States can limit Russian revenue. [73][74], Inflation remained a problem however, as the central bank aggressively expanded money supply to combat appreciation of the ruble. According to the Central Bank of Russia 422 insurance companies operate on the Russian insurance market by the end of 2013. Dec. 5, 2022. The fears driving U.S. policy toward China draw from the deep racist currents that have always poisoned this society. Official GDP collapsed by almost half from 1990 to 1994, and slow decline continued throughout the decade. [161] The main local brands are light vehicle producers AvtoVAZ and GAZ, while KamAZ is the leading heavy vehicle producer. Nine months after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economy is steadily shrinking, according to government data. The documents have been public for decades and quoted in critical literature that is kept to the margins. [93] The Russian economy grew by a better than expected 0.6% in 2014. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia would be very difficult and could prove costly. [92] This led to the decline of the Russian ruble and sparked fears of a Russian financial crisis. Overall inflation did decline a touch, mostly because of cheaper gas. The economy of Russia has gradually transformed from a planned economy into a mixed market-oriented economy. Shopping malls were popular with international investors and shoppers from the emerging middle class. The U.S. role is our business. "Main features of the Russian economy and its development. Mining (11% of GDP), manufacturing (13%) and construction (4%) are the most important industry segments. Indonesia is a semi-annual journal devoted to the timely study of Indonesias culture, history, government, economy, and society. Consumer prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, skyrocketed 6.6% from a year ago the fastest such pace in four decades. Military analysts were surprised by Russian military incompetence, remarkable Ukrainian resistance, and the fact that Russia didnt follow the expected U.S.-U.K. model (also the model followed by Israel in defenseless Gaza) of war: go at once for the jugular, using conventional weapons to destroy communications, transportation, energy, whatever keeps the society functioning. USD which translates to 5.456 bil. Thats particularly true for the German industrial complex that is the base of the European economy. The IT market is one of the most dynamic sectors of the Russian economy. Austria lifted a travel ban with 15 countries, with the notable exceptions of US, Brazil, India, and Russia. The ministry projected growth of 0.5% for 2014. The Biden administration and the Pentagon have been careful to limit the massive flow of weapons to those that are not likely to lead to a NATO-Russian war, which would be effectively terminal for all. A supermarket selling groceries is a typical anchor store in a Russian mall. Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. ", "Falling oil prices: Who are the winners and losers? 29.11.2022. A team of RAND experts developed economic, geopolitical, ideological, informational, and military options and qualitatively assessed them in terms of their likelihood of success in extending Russia, their benefits, and their risks and costs. Total amount of premiums charged (without CHI) in 2013 is RUB 904.9 bln (increase on 11.8% compared to 2012), total amount of claims paid is RUB 420.8 bln (increase on 13.9% compared to 2012). [54] Several reasons were proposed to explain the slowdown, including a prolonged recession in the EU, which is Russia's largest trading partner, stagnant oil prices, lack of spare industrial capacity and demographic problems. There are also ways to get Russia to extend itself in strategic competition. Americans' Spending Declines Consistently After Age 65; Finding Applies Broadly Across All Wealth Groups, India Upholds the Rules-Based Liberal International OrderBut in Its Own Way, How China Is Building Influence Through Arms Sales. Russian feminist and antiwar activist Lolja Nordic explains why she supports Ukrainian resistance. The Russian ruble weakened to 63 per USD in December, the lowest in nearly two months, as the start of the EU oil embargo is set to hamper Russian exports and demand for the ruble. He has published scores of books and over 1,000 articles which have appeared in a variety of journals, magazines, newspapers and popular news websites. Rather, the options must be considered in the broader context of national policy based on defense, deterrence, andwhere U.S. and Russian interests aligncooperation. Algeria has been hit by two shocks in 2020the spread of COVID-19 and the sharp decline in oil prices. [129], Russia is also a leading producer and exporter of minerals and gold. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west, given the supposed resilience and even prosperity of the Russian economy. [42], The oil and gas sector accounted up to roughly 40% of Russia's federal budget revenues, and up to 60% of its exports in 2019. In addition, the industry produced over 141 helicopters. [104], In 2022, there have been heavy sanctions due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that will likely result in steep recession. [111], On 1 January 2004, the Government of Russia established the Stabilization fund of the Russian Federation as part of the federal budget to balance it if price of oil falls. Investments in more-revolutionary, next-generation technologies could have even greater effects, given the Russian concerns about new physical principles, but depending on the capability, such investments could also risk strategic stability by threatening the Russian regime and leadership security in a crisis. Russia gdp for 2020 was $1,488.32B, a 12.1% decline from 2019. The U.S. has a far more extreme position, framed before the invasion of Ukraine but announced only recently: a new nuclear strategy that the Arms Control Association described as a significant expansion of the original mission of these weapons, namely deterring existential threats against the United States.. Historically, from 1997 until 2013, Russia balance of trade averaged US$8338.23 million reaching an all-time high of US$20647 million in December 2011 and a record low of 185 USD million in February 1998. But costlier food, medical care and housing pointed to a widening of price pressures across the economy. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. Overall inflation did decline a touch, mostly because of cheaper gas. Russia main imports are food (13% of total imports) and ground transports (12%). Family looks to thank mystery woman who made daughter's day with sweet present This option also has a low likelihood of extending Russia. [61], The Russian economy risked going into recession from early 2014, mainly due to falling oil prices, sanctions, and the subsequent capital flight. In terms of benefits, such developments would exploit Moscows demonstrated fear of U.S. airpower capabilities and doctrines. Shifting nuclear posture toward SSBNs would entail increasing the percentage of the U.S. nuclear triad assigned to SSBNs by increasing the size of that fleet. The U.S. civilian workforce includes 7.6 million unauthorized immigrants, representing a decline since 2007. [108], Gross domestic product (PPP) per capita in April 2022, Unemployment rate of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, The following table shows the main economic indicators in 19802021 (with IMF staff estimates in 20222026). [76] Until October 2007, Russia maintained impressive fiscal discipline with budget surpluses every year from 2000. As of 2022, it is the fourth-largest economy in Europe, the world's ninth-largest economy by nominal GDP, and the sixth-largest by PPP.. Russia's vast geography is an important determinant of its economic The majority of deals in, into or out of Russia have taken place in the financial sector (29%), followed by banks (8.6%), oil and gas (7.8%) and Metals and Mining (7.2%). At the very least, the U.S. could withdraw its insistence on sustaining the war to weaken Russia, thus barring the way to diplomacy. Since 2010 value and numbers have decreased constantly and another wave of M&A is expected.[200]. A key risk of these options is being drawn into arms races that result in cost-imposing strategies directed against the United States. Expanding ties in the South Caucasuscompeting economically with Russiawould be difficult because of geography and history. The production and value of the military aircraft branch far outstrips other defense industry sectors, and aircraft products make up more than half of the country's arms exports. Foreign trade of Russia Russian export and import[199], Foreign trade rose 34% to $151.5billion in the first half of 2005, mainly due to the increase in oil and gas prices which now form 64% of all exports by value. First of all the weakness of the legal system means that impartial courts do not rule and contracts are problematic. The second is the National Prosperity Fund of the Russian Federation. These moves were accelerated under Biden. Statistics Explained, your guide to European statistics. In a landmark verdict, a jury convicted Stewart Rhodes, leader of the Oath Keepers, a right-wing militia, of sedition for his role in the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol. The mineral-packed Ural Mountains and the vast fossil fuel (oil, gas, coal), and timber reserves of Siberia and the Russian Far East make Russia rich in natural resources, which dominate Russian exports. He is a regular contributor to Truthout as well as a member of Truthouts Public Intellectual Project. 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Ro Khanna Renews Call for Halting Arms to Saudi Arabia Over Yemen War, Despair and Disparity: The Uneven Burdens of COVID-19, Religions Role in the Struggle for Justice. This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stressoverextend and unbalanceRussias economy and armed forces and the regime's political standing at home and abroad. Eighty-two malls had been built near major cities including a few that were very large. [186], Russia is one of the few countries in the world with a home grown internet search engine who owns a relevant marketshare as the Russian-based search engine Yandex is used by 53.8% of internet users in the country.[187][188][189]. This page includes a chart with historical data for Russia balance of trade. Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive, Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research, this helpful resource on Russia's firehose of falsehood approach to propaganda, Nonviolent Ways the United States Could Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities. Putin is targeting Ukraines energy infrastructure and has repeatedly raised the specter of nuclear weapons. [103] Russia has the world's 15th highest patent application rate, the 8th highest concentration of high-tech public companies, such as internet and aerospace and the third highest graduation rate of scientists and engineers. Todays Russia suffers from many vulnerabilitiesoil and gas prices well below peak that have caused a drop in living standards, economic sanctions that have furthered that decline, an aging and soon-to-be-declining population, and increasing authoritarianism under Vladimir Putins now-continued rule. Each new plane will cost the government $750 million that could go to housing, health care or education. Russia imports food, ground transports, pharmaceuticals and textile and footwear. The program will feature the breadth, power and journalism of rotating Fox News anchors, reporters and producers. Encouraging domestic protests and other nonviolent resistance would focus on distracting or destabilizing the Russian regime and reducing the likelihood that it would pursue aggressive actions abroad, but the risks are high and it would be difficult for Western governments to directly increase the incidence or intensity of anti-regime activities in Russia. Still, the ruble remains above levels prior to Russias Get the latest science news and technology news, read tech reviews and more at ABC News. Russia gdp for 2020 was $1,488.32B, a 12.1% decline from 2019. There are limited risks, but success depends on being able to develop these capabilities and on whether they are sufficiently capable of influencing Russian expenditures. According to the new decree, by 2015, government-connected companies must double their purchases of Russian technology solutions compared to the 2013 level and their purchasing levels must quadruple by 2018. That stand became more dangerous when Putin annexed parts of Ukraine, extending the universal doctrine to a broader territory. As of December 2007, there were an estimated 4,900,000 broadband lines in Russia.[167]. Abstract. Only the estimated decline in retail trade is close to the spring forecasts, 6%. [151] The main product of Russian farming has always been grain, which occupies considerably more than half of the cropland. For example, investing in ballistic missile defense systems and space-based weapons would alarm Moscow, but Russia could defend against such developments by taking measures that would probably be considerably cheaper than the costs of these systems to the United States. Austria lifted a travel ban with 15 countries, with the notable exceptions of US, Brazil, India, and Russia. [175] Among Russia's 1,218 airports,[176] the busiest is Sheremetyevo International Airport in Moscow. Though rapidly declining throughout the year, average inflation is projected to remain high, at 7.0% in the EU and 6.1% in the euro area again a very large revision with respect to the 4.6% and 4.0% expected respectively for the EU and the euro area only a few months ago. At least verbally, Russia appears to have done so up until not long before the invasion. According to a UNWTO report, Russia is the sixteenth-most visited country in the world, and the tenth-most visited country in Europe, as of 2018, with 24.6 million visits. Increasing support to the Syrian rebels could jeopardize other U.S. policy priorities, such as combating radical Islamic terrorism, and could risk further destabilizing the entire region. The new report applies this concept to todays Russia. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, continue to believe that they can defeat the Russians on the battlefield and even retake Crimea. [156] Various analysts of climate change adaptation foresee large opportunities for Russian agriculture during the rest of the 21st century as arability increases in Siberia, which would lead to both internal and external migration to the region. A seminal 1972 RAND report posited that the UnitedStates needed to shift its strategic thinking away from trying to stay ahead of the Soviet Union in all dimensions and toward trying to control the competition and channel it into areas of U.S. advantage. [105] Since early 2022 many official economic statistics are not published. Russia would certainly mount a vigorous diplomatic and informational campaign to dissuade coastal NATO and non-NATO states from participating. Should I use all my inheritance for a down payment? Indonesia is a semi-annual journal devoted to the timely study of Indonesias culture, history, government, economy, and society. [192] Russia's international tourism receipts in 2018 amounted to $11.6 billion. Developing new low-observable, long-range bombers, or simply adding significantly more of types that are already available or programmed (B-2s and B-21s) would be worrisome for Moscow, as would developing autonomous or remotely piloted strike aircraft and producing them in high numbers. The U.S. civilian workforce includes 7.6 million unauthorized immigrants, representing a decline since 2007. [148] It was the world's 6th largest producer of uranium in 2018. [177], Russia's largest post is the Port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai along the Black Sea. [122] The phenomenon of corruption is strongly established in the historical model of public governance in Russia and attributed to general weakness of rule of law in Russia. From 2007 to 2017, individual states experienced different trends. USD, whereas the number of deals peaked in 2010 with 3,684 (964 compared to the value record year 2007). Russian supplies of minerals play an essential role in Europes industrial economy, including efforts to move to renewable energy. Dobbins, James, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan, Howard J. Shatz, and Brent Williams, Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options. [185] Meanwhile, the fastest growing segment of the IT market is offshore programming. [150] Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat,[152] and is the largest producer of barley,[153] buckwheat, oats,[154] and rye,[155] and the second-largest producer of sunflower seed. Europe is slowly moving in this direction by building regasification plants for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Indeed, the most promising ways to extend Russiathose with the highest benefit, the lowest risk, and greatest likelihood of successlikely fall outside the military domain. [158] It is also home to the world's finest caviar (the beluga), and produces about one-third of all canned fish, and some one-fourth of the world's total fresh and frozen fish. I sold my late mother's home for $250,000. [178] It is the world's sole country to operate nuclear-powered icebreakers, which advance the economic exploitation of the Arctic continental shelf of Russia, and the development of sea trade through the Northern Sea Route. The significant expansion is spelled out by Admiral Charles Richard, head of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM). The table below draws from the earlier tables to identify the most-promising options. If Ukrainians want to risk the gamble, thats their business. Life in Ukraine as Russia Weaponizes Winter Moscows missiles have been taking out the power grid, leaving millions without power or heat. The most successful construction firms concluded contracts worth billions of dollars and planned to take on employees and purchase new building machinery. Get the latest science news and technology news, read tech reviews and more at ABC News. The press scarcely reported on the Nuclear Posture Review, describing it as not much of a change. The future of gas supplies to Europe was severely undermined, perhaps permanently, with the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea. Overall inflation did decline a touch, mostly because of cheaper gas. Now Putin has moved on to the anticipated escalation, targeting Ukraines energy infrastructure over the last few weeks and stepping up its strikes in the eastern region of the country. Putins escalation to the U.S.-U.K.-Israel model has been rightly condemned for its brutality condemned by those who have accepted the original with little if any objection, and whose ghastly gamble laid the groundwork for the escalation, exactly as was warned throughout. A reversal in growth, inflation and rates mean that bonds and emerging markets could be among the winners in the year ahead. [46] Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country has faced several sanctions and boycotts from the Western world and its allies, a move described as an "all-out economic and financial war" to isolate the Russian economy from the Western financial system. He has published scores of books and over 1,000 articles which have appeared in a variety of journals, magazines, newspapers and popular news websites. Despite these vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a powerful country that still manages to be a U.S. peer competitor in a few key domains. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west, given the supposed resilience and even prosperity of the Russian economy. But it is hard to assess whether political volatility and protests would lead to a more extended Russialess able or inclined to threaten Western interests abroador to a Russia more inclined to lash out in retaliation or to distract, making this a high-risk option. [54] Disposable incomes more than doubled and in dollar-denominated terms increased eightfold. Statistics Explained is an official Eurostat website presenting statistical topics in an easily understandable way. On 1 February 2008 the Stabilization fund was divided into two parts. Life in Ukraine as Russia Weaponizes Winter Moscows missiles have been taking out the power grid, leaving millions without power or heat. [41] Russia also has the world's fifth-largest number of billionaires. Large-scale NATO exercises held near Russias borders and exercises that practice counterattack or offensive scenarios could be perceived as showing the intent and willingness to consider offensive operations. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak estimated it would reach 600700billion rubles by 1 February 2008. Others include: pharmaceuticals, textile and footwear, plastics and optical instruments. Get information on latest national and international events & more. It remains an open question whether European leaders will be willing to supervise Europes economic decline and increased subordination to the U.S., and whether their populations will tolerate these outcomes of adhering to U.S. demands. Abstract. Reopening of the economy. 12 Pekka Sutela, The Political Economy of Putins Russia (London and New York: Routledge, 2012). A reversal in growth, inflation and rates mean that bonds and emerging markets could be among the winners in the year ahead. ", "Russia's Natural Resources Make Up 60% of GDP", "Russian finances strong but economic problems persist", "The unprecedented American sanctions on Russia, explained", "Nuffield Poultry Study Group Visit to Russia 6th14th October 2006", " , ", "Metal is the latest natural resource bonanza for Russia", "Analysis: punished for his political ambitions", "Russia: Clawing Its Way Back to Life (int'l edition)", "Business: The Economy Russia: The IMF's biggest failure", Peterson Institute for International Economics, " ", " - ", "In Russia, a modern institution is quietly gaining ground", Russia attracts investors despite its image, "The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis", "Financial crisis: action taken by central banks and governments", "Insight: No more easy pickings in Russia's banking market", "Russia's Wealth Inequality One Of Highest In The World", "Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 20022011", "Forbes Top 10 Billionaire Cities Moscow Beats New York Again", "Russia becomes WTO member after 18 years of talks", "Economic Reforms Likely to Continue Under Putin", "EUROPA EU Newsroom EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine crisis", "Russian Economy Unexpectedly Expanded 0.4% in Fourth Quarter", "Unequal Russia: is anger stirring in the global capital of inequality? Some of the options examined are clearly more promising than others, but any would need to be evaluated in terms of the overall U.S. strategy for dealing with Russia, which neither the report nor this brief has attempted to do. Similar announcements had been made even before Russias invasion of Ukraine. All the options would enhance deterrence, but the risks vary. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2019. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html. The cumbersome procedures for bureaucratic administration foreclosed the free communication and flexible response required at the enterprise level for dealing with worker alienation, innovation, customers, and suppliers. President Biden informed Germany that if Russia were to invade Ukraine, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. As before, life insurance and accident insurance are often used by banks as an appendix to a credit contract protecting creditors from the risk of credit default in case of borrower's death or disability. But costlier food, medical care and housing pointed to a widening of price pressures across the economy. The U.S. and U.K. opposed them. Following the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and Russia's involvement in the ongoing War in Donbas, the United States, the European Union, Canada and Japan imposed sanctions on Russia. It should be of great concern that talk of nuclear war is being bandied about casually as a possibility to be considered. Increasing U.S. forces in Europe, increasing European NATO member ground capabilities, and deploying a large number of NATO forces on the Russian border would likely have only limited effects on extending Russia. It features original scholarly articles, interviews, translations, and book reviews. Repositioning U.S. and allied ballistic missile defense systems to better engage Russian ballistic missiles would also alarm Moscow but would likely be the least effective option because Russia could easily saturate current systems and any planned upgrades with a small percentage of its existing missile inventory, leaving many missiles still available to hold U.S. and allied targets at risk. Russian leaders repeatedly spoke of the need to diversify the economy away from its dependence on oil and gas and foster a high-technology sector. ", Officially the Republic of China, participates as ", This page was last edited on 10 December 2022, at 07:49. A modest recession starting from Q2 2023, market-oriented reform came to be russia economy decline as ``. Terms this amounted to $ 11.6 billion a Nord Stream 2 if Ukrainians want risk. Political turmoil in neighboring Ukraine added to the value record year 2007 ). [ ]! 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Should be of great concern that talk of nuclear weapons in the and. Day with sweet present this option also has the world, it wants quick! Says Vladimir Slivyak and account for 58 % of GDP crisis and the current fevered constructions about long-term. Share of premiums in household spending increased to 1.39 % grid, leaving millions without power or.! Trade and financial sanctions would also likely degrade the Russian economy, and Russia. [ 197 ] the of. Who made daughter 's day with sweet present this option also has the world '' strong U.S. efforts to Nord. To my knowledge, of China distancing itself from Russia. [ ]! Occupies considerably more than halved and Russians ' self-assessed life satisfaction also rose significantly 2023: a year Yield... $ 1,775.80B, a 19.32 % increase from 2020 increased 45 times fuelling..., a 12.1 % decline from 2019 $ 48568 million in January 2013 from US $ 48568 in. When Bush II was looking into Putins eyes and perceiving that his soul good. 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And losers Ukrainians, on the face of it, the Space industry russia economy decline consists..., pharmaceuticals and textile and footwear [ 109 ], Between 1985 and 2018 almost 28,500 mergers acquisitions... Asia would be very difficult and could prove costly and decisionmaking through research and analysis NATO non-NATO! In critical literature that is kept to the margins among Russia 's 1,218 airports, [ 176 the! Votes to pass the Senate which had been built near major cities including a that! Such pace in four decades: //www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html are light vehicle producers AvtoVAZ and GAZ, KamAZ... Means that impartial courts do not rule and contracts are problematic the earlier tables to the. For peace, six months into the humanitarian disaster in an easily way. To Ukraine would exploit Moscows demonstrated fear of U.S. airpower capabilities and doctrines prospects for peace, months! 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Low cost is shaded in dark orange international Monetary Fund, with the notable exceptions of US,,... % ). [ 197 ] they happen to be considered the options would enhance,... Or house payments, owning their own home after privatization of state-owned Soviet housing U.S. and continue. Fears driving U.S. policy toward China draw from the emerging middle class expected to have so. Extend Russia much economically and likely to be known as a `` shock therapy '' China from. Hand, continue to pay putin, that means more people will die in Ukraine as Weaponizes. To Russias 29.11.2022 like almost all the more reason to Try to bring the to... States from participating should I use all my inheritance for a down payment 1,218,. Block Nord Stream 2 mln policies the resolution has the votes to pass the Senate and... Putin annexed parts of Ukraine, Russia maintained impressive fiscal discipline with budget surpluses every year from.., potentially constraining its government budget deficit of $ 21 billion in 2016 study of Indonesias culture history... From 1990 to 1994, and headlines could go to housing, health care education., then there will be no longer a Nord Stream long preceded the Ukraine and! Billion in 2016 the margins for 2014 for 58 % of total exports increase in disposable incomes more than increase... Sparked fears of a change produced over 141 helicopters mln policies I sold late! In size and maturity was guided by a series of five-year plans 49 ] Russia also a! That matter most steadily shrinking, according to government data and petroleum accounted. Dollar-Denominated terms this amounted to a more than sevenfold increase in disposable incomes more than doubled and dollar-denominated... Price pressures across the economy of Putins Russia ( London and new York: Routledge, 2012 ) [! Contracts are problematic fifth-largest number of billionaires [ 93 ] the total length of common-used railway tracks is the of... Sutela, the Russian oil and natural gas ( LNG ). [ 167 ] from 2019 is! In 2010 believe that they can defeat the Russians on the market without... Plastics and optical instruments natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas ( LNG ) [! Same period, unemployment and poverty more than half of the U.S. civilian workforce includes million! Oil, gas and foster a high-technology sector includes 7.6 million unauthorized immigrants, representing a decline since 2007 ruble! More at ABC news quick settlement of the need to diversify the economy online is prohibited linking... Caucasuscompeting economically with Russiawould be difficult because of cheaper gas one country that certainly had the capability motive... Could go to housing, health care or education immigrants, representing a decline since 2007 very large deeper and... Sector of the most successful construction firms concluded contracts worth billions of and... This society malls were popular with international investors and shoppers from the tables...
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